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About Gold Portals
Aldrin monitors product changes, advertising, social media activity, app-store rankings and trading volume across prediction market operators. Patel said the objective is to connect those indicators and show how a product launch supported by advertising affects volume and market share.
Below the largest exchanges, he sees numerous operators competing for relatively small shares of a fast-growing category. “If you get 1% of this market, I think it’s a huge opportunity,” Patel said. “There are a lot of people fighting to get 1%.”
Jefferies estimates exchanges can retain approximately 65% of explicit transaction fees, with the balance distributed across clearinghouses, brokers and liquidity providers. It therefore expects more operators to bring parts of the infrastructure in-house.
How to play Gold Portals
The web of lawsuits and court rulings involving prediction markets has greatly complicated the issue of jurisdiction. Kalshi has been forced to limit trading in multiple states, most notably Nevada, and the CFTC has gone to unprecedented lengths to protect its licencees. This includes suing nine states directly and issuing emergency orders to reject state mandates.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is currently the lone sitting commissioner for an agency that traditionally features a bipartisan group of five. Selig has repeatedly defended both the legitimacy of prediction markets as financial assets and the role of the CFTC in overseeing them. The CFTC under his direction has embarked on a series of rule proposals regarding prediction markets, although detractors argue that the proposed changes still allow for sports contracts and in some ways could be seen as a tightening of the belt to make a Supreme Court review look more favourable.
“It’s not a question of whether innovations like blockchain, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets will transform our markets. It’s a question of where this innovation will take place and who will write the rules,” Selig said during a meeting of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee on 20 August, which featured the CEOs of Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, CME Group and more.
About Gold Portals
Counsell took the helm in February 2025 following Marcus Boyle’s departure in January last year.
Evans, who chairs Stop Scams UK, an initiative she founded in 2019 to unite banks, technology companies and telecom providers to combat payment fraud, will assume the position on 30 September, commencing a five-year term.
The DCMS has said she brings extensive experience from her long-standing career in public protection and financial crime prevention.
