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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
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The comment period opened shortly after several members of a Senate subcommittee alluded to the rise of prediction markets and the subsequent risk of a spike in harassment cases at a May federal sports betting hearing. The hearing, commenced by a US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation subcommittee, was held at the Russell Senate Building during the heart of the NBA and NHL Playoffs.
Cruz, who chairs the Senate Commerce Committee, also co-authored the aforementioned Protect College Sports Act with Washington Senator Maria Cantwell. As cloture motion for floor debate of the act began this week, Cruz has expressed optimism that the bill will be signed into law.
The proposed bill seeks to prevent student-athletes from trading on prediction markets, but does not set any explicit standards on player harassment.
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Sweepstakes casino platforms like VGW have ramped up their lobbying efforts in state capitals after suffering numerous operational setbacks in recent years.
Through the passing of laws banning dual-currency sweepstakes games or by cease-and-desist orders, VGW has exited numerous states and limited where sweeps coins, which can be bought and gambled for real money, are available.
Chumba Casino, VGW’s flagship brand, says in its Sept. 16 updated terms and conditions that the platform is not available in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Washington, and West Virginia.
